Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →31.7%
Hertford Town
23.4%
Draw
45.0%
Manchester City
Expected Goals (xG)
1.34
Hertford Town
vs
1.64
Manchester City
Markets
BTTS59.1%
Over 0.595.3%
Over 1.579.4%
Over 2.557.2%
Over 3.534.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
10.8%
1-2
9.2%
0-1
8.7%
2-1
7.5%
1-0
7.2%
0-2
6.8%
2-2
6.1%
1-3
5.0%
0-0
4.7%
2-0
4.6%
0-3
3.7%
2-3
3.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).