Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →50.3%
Chesterfield
24.1%
Draw
25.6%
Gillingham
Expected Goals (xG)
1.59
Chesterfield
vs
1.05
Gillingham
Markets
BTTS51.4%
Over 0.593.4%
Over 1.573.6%
Over 2.549.2%
Over 3.527.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
11.8%
1-1
11.4%
2-1
9.5%
2-0
9.0%
0-1
8.0%
0-0
6.6%
1-2
6.3%
3-1
5.0%
2-2
5.0%
3-0
4.8%
0-2
3.9%
3-2
2.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).