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22 Nov 2025 · 12:30

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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25.8%
Charlton
29.4%
Draw
44.9%
Southampton

Expected Goals (xG)

0.99

Charlton

vs
1.38

Southampton

Markets

BTTS48.0%
Over 0.589.6%
Over 1.569.5%
Over 2.542.2%
Over 3.521.5%

Most Likely Scorelines

1-1
13.8%
0-1
11.9%
0-0
10.4%
0-2
8.9%
1-2
8.8%
1-0
8.2%
2-1
6.3%
2-0
4.6%
2-2
4.3%
0-3
4.1%
1-3
4.1%
3-1
2.1%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).