Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →28.8%
Sunderland
34.6%
Draw
36.6%
Aston Villa
Expected Goals (xG)
0.92
Sunderland
vs
1.07
Aston Villa
Markets
BTTS41.2%
Over 0.584.4%
Over 1.560.8%
Over 2.531.9%
Over 3.514.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-0
15.6%
1-1
15.3%
0-1
12.8%
1-0
10.8%
0-2
7.8%
1-2
7.2%
2-1
6.2%
2-0
5.8%
2-2
3.3%
0-3
2.8%
1-3
2.5%
3-1
1.9%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).