Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →80.1%
Man United
14.3%
Draw
5.6%
Watford
Expected Goals (xG)
2.76
Man United
vs
0.67
Watford
Markets
BTTS46.4%
Over 0.595.9%
Over 1.586.4%
Over 2.566.5%
Over 3.544.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
12.4%
3-0
11.4%
2-1
8.3%
1-0
8.1%
4-0
7.9%
3-1
7.6%
1-1
6.8%
4-1
5.2%
5-0
4.3%
0-0
4.1%
5-1
2.9%
2-2
2.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).