Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →39.6%
Chelsea
27.8%
Draw
32.6%
Manchester City
Expected Goals (xG)
1.54
Chelsea
vs
1.38
Manchester City
Markets
BTTS60.3%
Over 0.593.0%
Over 1.580.4%
Over 2.555.8%
Over 3.533.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.1%
2-1
8.8%
1-2
7.9%
0-0
7.0%
1-0
6.7%
2-0
6.4%
2-2
6.1%
0-1
5.9%
0-2
5.1%
3-1
4.5%
1-3
3.6%
3-0
3.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).