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AHT: 01CSV

30 Sept 2024 · 19:45

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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35.0%
Parma
29.7%
Draw
35.4%
Cagliari

Expected Goals (xG)

1.04

Parma

vs
1.04

Cagliari

Markets

BTTS41.5%
Over 0.587.7%
Over 1.561.3%
Over 2.534.5%
Over 3.515.7%

Most Likely Scorelines

1-1
13.3%
0-1
13.3%
1-0
13.2%
0-0
12.3%
1-2
7.0%
2-1
7.0%
0-2
6.8%
2-0
6.7%
2-2
3.6%
1-3
2.5%
3-1
2.4%
0-3
2.4%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).