Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →41.5%
Sevilla
27.8%
Draw
30.7%
Vallecano
Expected Goals (xG)
1.33
Sevilla
vs
1.11
Vallecano
Markets
BTTS49.5%
Over 0.591.0%
Over 1.570.2%
Over 2.543.9%
Over 3.522.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.1%
1-0
11.4%
0-1
9.4%
0-0
9.0%
2-1
8.6%
2-0
7.7%
1-2
7.1%
0-2
5.4%
2-2
4.7%
3-1
3.8%
3-0
3.4%
1-3
2.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).