Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →56.6%
Northampton
22.7%
Draw
20.6%
Carlisle
Expected Goals (xG)
1.63
Northampton
vs
0.86
Carlisle
Markets
BTTS45.4%
Over 0.592.7%
Over 1.570.1%
Over 2.545.4%
Over 3.524.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
14.5%
2-0
11.0%
1-1
10.6%
2-1
9.5%
0-1
8.1%
0-0
7.3%
3-0
6.0%
3-1
5.2%
1-2
5.0%
2-2
4.1%
0-2
3.1%
4-0
2.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).