Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →63.3%
AFC Wimbledon
23.0%
Draw
13.7%
Newport County
Expected Goals (xG)
1.66
AFC Wimbledon
vs
0.61
Newport County
Markets
BTTS36.4%
Over 0.590.0%
Over 1.565.6%
Over 2.539.4%
Over 3.519.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
17.6%
2-0
14.3%
1-1
10.0%
0-0
10.0%
2-1
8.7%
3-0
7.9%
0-1
6.7%
3-1
4.8%
4-0
3.3%
1-2
3.2%
2-2
2.6%
4-1
2.0%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).