Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →38.1%
Birmingham
31.4%
Draw
30.5%
Stoke
Expected Goals (xG)
1.17
Birmingham
vs
1.02
Stoke
Markets
BTTS45.2%
Over 0.587.7%
Over 1.565.4%
Over 2.537.4%
Over 3.517.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
14.5%
0-0
12.3%
1-0
12.0%
0-1
10.3%
2-1
7.8%
2-0
7.7%
1-2
6.8%
0-2
5.8%
2-2
4.0%
3-1
3.0%
3-0
3.0%
1-3
2.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).