Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →35.9%
Casa Pia
32.3%
Draw
31.9%
Santa Clara
Expected Goals (xG)
1.05
Casa Pia
vs
0.97
Santa Clara
Markets
BTTS41.2%
Over 0.585.9%
Over 1.560.8%
Over 2.532.9%
Over 3.514.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
14.3%
0-0
14.1%
1-0
13.1%
0-1
12.1%
2-0
7.3%
2-1
7.1%
1-2
6.6%
0-2
6.3%
2-2
3.4%
3-0
2.5%
3-1
2.5%
1-3
2.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).