Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →42.3%
Nacional
26.2%
Draw
31.5%
Moreirense
Expected Goals (xG)
1.32
Nacional
vs
1.10
Moreirense
Markets
BTTS48.3%
Over 0.591.7%
Over 1.569.1%
Over 2.543.6%
Over 3.522.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.3%
1-0
12.3%
0-1
10.3%
2-1
8.5%
0-0
8.3%
2-0
7.8%
1-2
7.1%
0-2
5.4%
2-2
4.7%
3-1
3.8%
3-0
3.4%
1-3
2.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).