Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →62.7%
Port Vale
21.3%
Draw
16.0%
Carlisle
Expected Goals (xG)
1.83
Port Vale
vs
0.78
Carlisle
Markets
BTTS45.1%
Over 0.593.1%
Over 1.573.0%
Over 2.548.5%
Over 3.526.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
13.9%
2-0
12.3%
1-1
10.0%
2-1
9.6%
3-0
7.5%
0-0
6.9%
0-1
6.2%
3-1
5.9%
1-2
4.1%
2-2
3.8%
4-0
3.4%
4-1
2.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).