Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →37.7%
Spal
29.0%
Draw
33.3%
Brescia
Expected Goals (xG)
1.12
Spal
vs
1.04
Brescia
Markets
BTTS43.3%
Over 0.588.7%
Over 1.563.3%
Over 2.536.6%
Over 3.517.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.2%
1-0
13.2%
0-1
12.2%
0-0
11.3%
2-1
7.5%
2-0
7.3%
1-2
7.0%
0-2
6.2%
2-2
3.9%
3-1
2.8%
3-0
2.7%
1-3
2.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).