Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →31.1%
Brentford
26.8%
Draw
42.1%
Chelsea
Expected Goals (xG)
1.41
Brentford
vs
1.66
Chelsea
Markets
BTTS62.6%
Over 0.593.8%
Over 1.582.6%
Over 2.559.1%
Over 3.536.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.4%
1-2
9.0%
2-1
7.7%
0-2
6.4%
2-2
6.3%
0-1
6.2%
0-0
6.2%
1-0
5.1%
1-3
5.0%
2-0
4.6%
3-1
3.6%
0-3
3.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).