Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →68.6%
Cardiff
16.3%
Draw
15.1%
Plymouth
Expected Goals (xG)
2.43
Cardiff
vs
1.04
Plymouth
Markets
BTTS58.2%
Over 0.597.5%
Over 1.585.3%
Over 2.567.2%
Over 3.545.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-1
9.6%
2-0
9.2%
1-0
8.3%
3-1
7.7%
3-0
7.5%
1-1
7.2%
2-2
5.0%
4-1
4.7%
4-0
4.5%
1-2
4.1%
3-2
4.0%
0-1
3.9%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).