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02 Aug 2025 · 14:00

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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70.7%
St Pauli
14.5%
Draw
14.8%
Crawley Town

Expected Goals (xG)

3.04

St Pauli

vs
1.40

Crawley Town

Markets

BTTS71.5%
Over 0.599.0%
Over 1.593.4%
Over 2.581.9%
Over 3.564.7%

Most Likely Scorelines

3-1
7.7%
2-1
7.6%
4-1
5.9%
3-0
5.5%
2-0
5.5%
3-2
5.4%
2-2
5.3%
1-1
4.9%
4-0
4.2%
4-2
4.1%
1-0
3.8%
5-1
3.6%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).