Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →70.7%
St Pauli
14.5%
Draw
14.8%
Crawley Town
Expected Goals (xG)
3.04
St Pauli
vs
1.40
Crawley Town
Markets
BTTS71.5%
Over 0.599.0%
Over 1.593.4%
Over 2.581.9%
Over 3.564.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
3-1
7.7%
2-1
7.6%
4-1
5.9%
3-0
5.5%
2-0
5.5%
3-2
5.4%
2-2
5.3%
1-1
4.9%
4-0
4.2%
4-2
4.1%
1-0
3.8%
5-1
3.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).