Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →41.9%
Watford
28.9%
Draw
29.2%
Birmingham
Expected Goals (xG)
1.36
Watford
vs
1.09
Birmingham
Markets
BTTS50.3%
Over 0.590.4%
Over 1.571.1%
Over 2.544.3%
Over 3.523.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.7%
1-0
10.8%
0-0
9.6%
2-1
8.7%
0-1
8.5%
2-0
7.9%
1-2
7.0%
0-2
5.2%
2-2
4.7%
3-1
3.9%
3-0
3.6%
1-3
2.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).