Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →55.9%
Leverkusen
25.3%
Draw
18.7%
Mainz
Expected Goals (xG)
1.73
Leverkusen
vs
0.91
Mainz
Markets
BTTS49.9%
Over 0.592.0%
Over 1.574.8%
Over 2.549.1%
Over 3.527.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.1%
1-0
11.5%
2-0
10.7%
2-1
9.7%
0-0
8.0%
3-0
6.2%
0-1
5.6%
3-1
5.6%
1-2
5.1%
2-2
4.4%
0-2
2.9%
4-0
2.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).