Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →44.5%
Sociedad
23.4%
Draw
32.1%
Malaga
Expected Goals (xG)
1.69
Sociedad
vs
1.40
Malaga
Markets
BTTS61.3%
Over 0.595.5%
Over 1.581.2%
Over 2.559.6%
Over 3.537.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
10.7%
2-1
9.1%
1-0
7.8%
1-2
7.5%
0-1
6.5%
2-0
6.5%
2-2
6.4%
3-1
5.1%
0-2
4.5%
0-0
4.5%
3-0
3.6%
3-2
3.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).