Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →66.7%
Derby
21.4%
Draw
12.0%
Wigan
Expected Goals (xG)
1.69
Derby
vs
0.53
Wigan
Markets
BTTS32.6%
Over 0.589.9%
Over 1.564.1%
Over 2.538.2%
Over 3.518.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
19.2%
2-0
15.5%
0-0
10.1%
1-1
8.9%
3-0
8.7%
2-1
8.2%
0-1
6.6%
3-1
4.6%
4-0
3.7%
1-2
2.6%
2-2
2.2%
4-1
1.9%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).