Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →33.3%
Arouca
21.4%
Draw
45.3%
Estoril
Expected Goals (xG)
1.84
Arouca
vs
2.16
Estoril
Markets
BTTS74.9%
Over 0.597.7%
Over 1.591.3%
Over 2.576.2%
Over 3.556.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-2
7.9%
1-1
7.7%
2-2
7.2%
2-1
6.7%
1-3
5.6%
2-3
5.2%
3-2
4.4%
0-2
4.3%
3-1
4.1%
0-1
3.5%
3-3
3.2%
2-0
3.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).