Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →33.7%
Leicester
25.7%
Draw
40.6%
Derby
Expected Goals (xG)
1.46
Leicester
vs
1.62
Derby
Markets
BTTS62.4%
Over 0.594.5%
Over 1.582.1%
Over 2.559.3%
Over 3.536.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
11.8%
1-2
8.8%
2-1
7.9%
0-1
6.6%
2-2
6.4%
0-2
6.0%
1-0
5.8%
0-0
5.5%
2-0
4.9%
1-3
4.7%
3-1
3.9%
2-3
3.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).