Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →41.0%
Aston Villa
28.0%
Draw
30.9%
Brentford
Expected Goals (xG)
1.54
Aston Villa
vs
1.32
Brentford
Markets
BTTS59.2%
Over 0.592.7%
Over 1.579.5%
Over 2.554.5%
Over 3.532.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.3%
2-1
9.0%
1-2
7.7%
0-0
7.3%
1-0
7.2%
2-0
6.8%
0-1
5.9%
2-2
5.9%
0-2
5.0%
3-1
4.6%
3-0
3.5%
1-3
3.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).