Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →46.3%
Guimaraes
30.0%
Draw
23.6%
Santa Clara
Expected Goals (xG)
1.14
Guimaraes
vs
0.72
Santa Clara
Markets
BTTS34.4%
Over 0.585.0%
Over 1.555.0%
Over 2.528.6%
Over 3.511.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
18.3%
0-0
15.0%
1-1
12.2%
0-1
11.7%
2-0
10.2%
2-1
7.3%
1-2
4.6%
0-2
4.0%
3-0
3.9%
3-1
2.8%
2-2
2.6%
4-0
1.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).