Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →76.7%
Porto
17.0%
Draw
6.3%
Setubal
Expected Goals (xG)
2.02
Porto
vs
0.38
Setubal
Markets
BTTS27.3%
Over 0.591.2%
Over 1.568.8%
Over 2.543.0%
Over 3.522.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
18.6%
2-0
18.5%
3-0
12.4%
0-0
8.8%
2-1
7.1%
1-1
6.7%
4-0
6.2%
3-1
4.7%
0-1
3.8%
5-0
2.5%
4-1
2.4%
2-2
1.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).