Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →55.1%
Porto
27.5%
Draw
17.4%
Sp Braga
Expected Goals (xG)
1.54
Porto
vs
0.75
Sp Braga
Markets
BTTS42.4%
Over 0.589.0%
Over 1.567.6%
Over 2.540.1%
Over 3.519.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
14.7%
1-1
12.6%
2-0
12.0%
0-0
11.0%
2-1
9.0%
0-1
6.7%
3-0
6.1%
3-1
4.6%
1-2
4.4%
2-2
3.4%
0-2
2.9%
4-0
2.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).