Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →46.2%
Sudtirol
31.1%
Draw
22.7%
Spal
Expected Goals (xG)
1.30
Sudtirol
vs
0.83
Spal
Markets
BTTS42.5%
Over 0.586.9%
Over 1.564.2%
Over 2.536.0%
Over 3.516.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
14.1%
1-0
14.1%
0-0
13.1%
2-0
10.0%
0-1
8.6%
2-1
8.3%
1-2
5.4%
3-0
4.3%
0-2
4.1%
3-1
3.6%
2-2
3.5%
3-2
1.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).