Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →86.8%
Benfica
9.3%
Draw
3.9%
Estrela
Expected Goals (xG)
2.99
Benfica
vs
0.50
Estrela
Markets
BTTS37.4%
Over 0.597.2%
Over 1.586.1%
Over 2.567.8%
Over 3.546.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
13.6%
3-0
13.5%
4-0
10.1%
1-0
9.3%
2-1
6.9%
3-1
6.8%
5-0
6.0%
4-1
5.1%
1-1
4.4%
5-1
3.1%
0-0
2.8%
0-1
1.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).