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AHT: 11CSV

09 Apr 2024 · 19:45

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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18.5%
Wealdstone
25.8%
Draw
55.7%
Southend

Expected Goals (xG)

0.89

Wealdstone

vs
1.70

Southend

Markets

BTTS49.0%
Over 0.591.5%
Over 1.574.0%
Over 2.547.9%
Over 3.526.2%

Most Likely Scorelines

1-1
12.3%
0-1
11.8%
0-2
10.9%
1-2
9.6%
0-0
8.5%
0-3
6.2%
1-0
5.7%
1-3
5.5%
2-1
5.0%
2-2
4.3%
2-0
3.0%
0-4
2.6%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).