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05 Oct 2025 · 17:30

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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36.5%
Borussia Mönchengladbach
27.1%
Draw
36.4%
Freiburg

Expected Goals (xG)

1.40

Borussia Mönchengladbach

vs
1.40

Freiburg

Markets

BTTS57.7%
Over 0.593.0%
Over 1.577.8%
Over 2.553.1%
Over 3.530.8%

Most Likely Scorelines

1-1
12.8%
2-1
8.3%
1-2
8.3%
1-0
7.6%
0-1
7.6%
0-0
7.0%
2-0
6.0%
0-2
6.0%
2-2
5.8%
3-1
3.9%
1-3
3.9%
3-0
2.8%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).