Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →32.1%
Luton
24.1%
Draw
43.8%
Lincoln
Expected Goals (xG)
1.17
Luton
vs
1.42
Lincoln
Markets
BTTS51.4%
Over 0.593.6%
Over 1.572.2%
Over 2.548.1%
Over 3.526.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
11.6%
1-1
11.4%
1-0
9.8%
1-2
8.9%
0-2
7.5%
2-1
7.3%
0-0
6.4%
2-2
5.2%
2-0
5.1%
1-3
4.2%
0-3
3.6%
3-1
2.9%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).