Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →58.5%
Fleetwood Town
21.7%
Draw
19.8%
Newport County
Expected Goals (xG)
1.85
Fleetwood Town
vs
0.97
Newport County
Markets
BTTS51.9%
Over 0.594.5%
Over 1.576.8%
Over 2.553.5%
Over 3.531.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
11.5%
1-1
10.3%
2-0
10.2%
2-1
9.9%
3-0
6.3%
0-1
6.2%
3-1
6.1%
0-0
5.5%
1-2
5.2%
2-2
4.8%
3-2
3.0%
4-0
2.9%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).