Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →55.4%
Moreirense
25.3%
Draw
19.3%
Estrela
Expected Goals (xG)
1.74
Moreirense
vs
0.94
Estrela
Markets
BTTS51.1%
Over 0.592.3%
Over 1.575.7%
Over 2.550.2%
Over 3.528.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.1%
1-0
11.1%
2-0
10.4%
2-1
9.8%
0-0
7.7%
3-0
6.0%
3-1
5.7%
0-1
5.6%
1-2
5.3%
2-2
4.6%
0-2
3.0%
3-2
2.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).