Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →84.2%
Sp Lisbon
10.9%
Draw
4.9%
Moreirense
Expected Goals (xG)
2.79
Sp Lisbon
vs
0.53
Moreirense
Markets
BTTS38.3%
Over 0.596.6%
Over 1.584.1%
Over 2.564.3%
Over 3.542.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
14.1%
3-0
13.1%
1-0
10.4%
4-0
9.1%
2-1
7.5%
3-1
6.9%
1-1
5.1%
5-0
5.1%
4-1
4.8%
0-0
3.4%
5-1
2.7%
0-1
2.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).