Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →41.9%
Manchester City
27.6%
Draw
30.5%
Chelsea
Expected Goals (xG)
1.59
Manchester City
vs
1.33
Chelsea
Markets
BTTS60.2%
Over 0.593.0%
Over 1.580.5%
Over 2.555.9%
Over 3.533.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.0%
2-1
9.1%
1-2
7.6%
1-0
7.0%
0-0
7.0%
2-0
6.8%
2-2
6.0%
0-1
5.6%
3-1
4.8%
0-2
4.8%
3-0
3.6%
1-3
3.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).