Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →80.7%
Real Madrid
13.6%
Draw
5.7%
Deportivo Alavés
Expected Goals (xG)
2.55
Real Madrid
vs
0.54
Deportivo Alavés
Markets
BTTS38.7%
Over 0.595.3%
Over 1.581.5%
Over 2.559.7%
Over 3.537.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
14.8%
3-0
12.5%
1-0
11.5%
2-1
8.0%
4-0
8.0%
3-1
6.8%
1-1
6.4%
0-0
4.7%
4-1
4.3%
5-0
4.1%
0-1
2.3%
5-1
2.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).