Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →60.1%
Manchester City
23.0%
Draw
17.0%
Leeds
Expected Goals (xG)
2.11
Manchester City
vs
1.06
Leeds
Markets
BTTS58.8%
Over 0.594.5%
Over 1.583.8%
Over 2.561.4%
Over 3.539.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
10.7%
2-1
9.9%
2-0
9.3%
1-0
7.5%
3-1
7.0%
3-0
6.6%
0-0
5.5%
2-2
5.3%
1-2
5.0%
3-2
3.7%
4-1
3.7%
4-0
3.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).