Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →32.8%
Logrones
27.3%
Draw
39.8%
Malaga
Expected Goals (xG)
1.13
Logrones
vs
1.27
Malaga
Markets
BTTS48.5%
Over 0.591.0%
Over 1.568.9%
Over 2.542.9%
Over 3.522.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.9%
0-1
11.7%
1-0
10.4%
0-0
9.0%
1-2
8.3%
0-2
7.3%
2-1
7.3%
2-0
5.8%
2-2
4.7%
1-3
3.5%
0-3
3.1%
3-1
2.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).