Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →35.1%
Sociedad
23.9%
Draw
41.0%
Villarreal
Expected Goals (xG)
1.52
Sociedad
vs
1.66
Villarreal
Markets
BTTS63.6%
Over 0.595.6%
Over 1.582.9%
Over 2.561.7%
Over 3.539.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
10.7%
1-2
8.7%
2-1
8.0%
0-1
6.7%
2-2
6.6%
1-0
6.1%
0-2
5.7%
1-3
4.8%
2-0
4.8%
0-0
4.4%
3-1
4.1%
2-3
3.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).