Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →48.1%
Derby
26.1%
Draw
25.8%
QPR
Expected Goals (xG)
1.67
Derby
vs
1.17
QPR
Markets
BTTS57.1%
Over 0.593.3%
Over 1.578.7%
Over 2.554.2%
Over 3.531.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.3%
2-1
9.5%
1-0
8.7%
2-0
8.1%
0-0
6.7%
1-2
6.7%
0-1
5.8%
2-2
5.6%
3-1
5.3%
3-0
4.5%
0-2
4.0%
3-2
3.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).