Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →61.7%
Villarreal
22.5%
Draw
15.9%
Vallecano
Expected Goals (xG)
1.87
Villarreal
vs
0.83
Vallecano
Markets
BTTS47.8%
Over 0.593.0%
Over 1.575.2%
Over 2.550.5%
Over 3.528.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
12.4%
2-0
11.8%
1-1
10.7%
2-1
9.7%
3-0
7.3%
0-0
7.0%
3-1
6.1%
0-1
5.4%
1-2
4.3%
2-2
4.0%
4-0
3.4%
4-1
2.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).