Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →71.4%
Estoril
16.5%
Draw
12.1%
Belenenses
Expected Goals (xG)
2.36
Estoril
vs
0.85
Belenenses
Markets
BTTS51.5%
Over 0.596.3%
Over 1.582.7%
Over 2.562.2%
Over 3.540.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
11.2%
1-0
9.9%
2-1
9.6%
3-0
8.8%
1-1
7.7%
3-1
7.5%
4-0
5.2%
4-1
4.4%
2-2
4.1%
0-1
3.8%
0-0
3.7%
1-2
3.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).