Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →35.6%
Vallecano
27.2%
Draw
37.2%
Malaga
Expected Goals (xG)
1.20
Vallecano
vs
1.23
Malaga
Markets
BTTS49.4%
Over 0.591.4%
Over 1.569.7%
Over 2.543.9%
Over 3.522.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.9%
0-1
10.9%
1-0
10.7%
0-0
8.6%
1-2
8.0%
2-1
7.8%
0-2
6.7%
2-0
6.3%
2-2
4.8%
1-3
3.3%
3-1
3.1%
0-3
2.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).