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08 Dec 2024 · 16:15

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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70.5%
Sassuolo
19.6%
Draw
9.9%
Sampdoria

Expected Goals (xG)

2.21

Sassuolo

vs
0.72

Sampdoria

Markets

BTTS46.7%
Over 0.593.9%
Over 1.580.0%
Over 2.556.3%
Over 3.533.9%

Most Likely Scorelines

2-0
13.0%
1-0
10.9%
3-0
9.6%
2-1
9.4%
1-1
9.3%
3-1
6.9%
0-0
6.1%
4-0
5.3%
4-1
3.8%
2-2
3.4%
1-2
3.1%
0-1
3.0%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).