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AHT: 13CSV

03 Dec 2022 · 12:30

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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17.6%
Scunthorpe
20.5%
Draw
61.8%
Notts County

Expected Goals (xG)

1.18

Scunthorpe

vs
2.30

Notts County

Markets

BTTS62.9%
Over 0.596.2%
Over 1.586.9%
Over 2.567.5%
Over 3.545.8%

Most Likely Scorelines

1-2
9.6%
1-1
9.1%
0-2
8.2%
1-3
7.4%
0-1
6.4%
0-3
6.3%
2-2
5.7%
2-1
4.9%
2-3
4.3%
1-4
4.2%
0-0
3.8%
0-4
3.6%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).