Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →84.7%
Benfica
11.7%
Draw
3.6%
Alverca
Expected Goals (xG)
2.75
Benfica
vs
0.45
Alverca
Markets
BTTS34.6%
Over 0.595.6%
Over 1.583.3%
Over 2.562.1%
Over 3.539.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
15.3%
3-0
14.1%
1-0
10.8%
4-0
9.7%
2-1
7.0%
3-1
6.4%
1-1
5.5%
5-0
5.3%
0-0
4.4%
4-1
4.4%
5-1
2.4%
2-2
1.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).