Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →21.0%
Burton
24.2%
Draw
54.9%
Derby
Expected Goals (xG)
0.80
Burton
vs
1.50
Derby
Markets
BTTS41.7%
Over 0.591.0%
Over 1.565.9%
Over 2.540.4%
Over 3.520.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
16.1%
0-2
11.3%
1-1
11.0%
0-0
9.0%
1-2
9.0%
1-0
9.0%
0-3
5.6%
2-1
4.8%
1-3
4.5%
2-2
3.6%
2-0
3.2%
0-4
2.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).