Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →41.4%
Man United
26.5%
Draw
32.1%
Newcastle
Expected Goals (xG)
1.68
Man United
vs
1.46
Newcastle
Markets
BTTS63.9%
Over 0.594.2%
Over 1.583.5%
Over 2.560.7%
Over 3.538.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.1%
2-1
8.9%
1-2
7.8%
2-2
6.5%
2-0
6.1%
0-0
5.8%
1-0
5.8%
3-1
5.0%
0-1
4.9%
0-2
4.6%
1-3
3.8%
3-2
3.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).